BOARD DISCUSSION DOCUMENT Entering the German mid-market can add €40M revenue by 2028 Recommendation and phased plan for a decision at the 14 November board meeting Strategy team · October 2026 Open with the answer. The board has discussed Germany for two years — today is about a decision, not another option paper.
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Entering Germany now captures a €40M window before two rivals scale Decision requested: Approve a €6M phase-1 budget and the partner shortlist at this meeting SITUATION Our UK mid-market business grew 18% a year since 2022 and now funds itself; the product is proven in a regulated market. COMPLICATION Two well-funded competitors are preparing German launches in 2027, and switching costs make early share sticky. RESOLUTION Enter Germany in 2027 through a partner-led model, scaling direct sales only after 40 reference clients. Illustrative data. Source: Northwind management accounts FY2025; Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 If the board reads only this page, it can make the decision.
[Sources]
- Northwind management accounts FY2025 — illustrative data
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 3 WHY CHANGE The UK business is profitable, growing and ready to fund a second market Revenue FY2025 Operating margin Net revenue retention Free cash flow €42M +18% YoY Mid-market drove 60% of growth 23% +3.1 pts Highest in five years 112% +4 pts Expansion within existing accounts €9M +€2.4M Covers phase 1 without new capital Illustrative data. Source: Northwind management accounts FY2025 [Sources]
- Northwind management accounts FY2025 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 4 WHY CHANGE The German mid-market is three times our UK base and still under-served Addressable mid-market firms, thousands 14 41 28 10 12 UK Germany France Netherlands Nordics Germany is the largest prize • The top vendor holds under 12% share; no one owns the segment yet • Two rivals plan 2027 launches — early references will decide share Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 5 THE RECOMMENDATION A partner-led entry beats direct build and acquisition on speed and risk Verdict: Partner-led keeps €6M at risk with quarterly exit gates and still reaches revenue in 2027 Direct build Own sales team from day one RECOMMENDED Partner-led Two resellers, direct later Acquire Buy a local player Time to first revenue 18 months 7 months 4 months Capital at risk €14M €6M €35–45M Control of customer Full Shared in years 1–2 Full Reversibility Low — sunk cost High — exit gates Very low Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026; Four comparable SaaS entries into Germany, 2019–2025 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
- Four comparable SaaS entries into Germany, 2019–2025 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 6 THE RECOMMENDATION Partners cut time to first revenue from 18 to 7 months Months from decision to first recurring revenue, comparable entries 7 11 18 22 Partner-led (avg) Hybrid Direct build (avg) Greenfield subsidiary Speed wins the window • Partners bring warm pipelines and local compliance know-how • Seven months puts us live before both rivals launch Illustrative data. Source: Four comparable SaaS entries into Germany, 2019–2025 [Sources]
- Four comparable SaaS entries into Germany, 2019–2025 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 7 THE RECOMMENDATION Germany adds €40M by 2028 on top of a growing UK base Revenue bridge FY2025 → FY2028, €M 42 +31 +28 +12 +4 −9 108 FY2025 UK growth Germany partners Germany direct Price changes Churn FY2028 Germany is 40% of new revenue • €28M of the €40M comes through partners in years 1–2 • Direct sales add €12M only after Gate 2 Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 8 HOW WE GET THERE Localisation is the critical path; direct sales scale only after Gate 2 Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Today Partner selection Shortlist → sign Localisation Critical path Pilot clients 15 references Gate reviews Gate 1 Gate 2 Direct sales Scale Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 9 HOW WE GET THERE Three risks matter most, and each has an owner and an early signal Risk Likelihood Impact Mitigation Owner Partners under-deliver pipeline Medium High Two partners with quarterly targets and exit clauses Strategy Localisation slips past Q2 2027 Medium High Dedicated squad; scope frozen at German UI and hosting Product Rivals undercut on price High Medium Lead on compliance and service; price floor agreed with CFO Sales Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Northwind Analytics · Confidential — for board discussion 10 DECISION Decision today: approve phase 1 so partners can be signed by January DECISION REQUESTED Approve the €6M phase-1 budget and the shortlist of two German partners 1 Sign letters of intent with the two shortlisted partners Strategy · 28 Nov 2 Stand up the localisation squad and freeze scope Product · 5 Dec 3 Register the German entity and open accounts Finance · 19 Dec 4 First quarterly gate review with the board CEO · Mar 2027 Illustrative data. Source: Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 [Sources]
- Strategy team market model, Oct 2026 — illustrative data
Questions and discussion Appendix with market model and partner profiles available on request strategy@northwind.example